The Count

News

Covid-19 hits the first major world leader in Boris Johnson and his Health Secretary as Trump promises data driven policy on the virus. A flood of new and potentially important manuscripts (yet to be peer reviewed) describe research which, in some cases confirm our current beliefs and in others, turn them on their head with the suggestion that the virus has spread far more explosively and infected as many as 200 times more people than we thought. Determining the truth is likely to require widespread serological testing for antibodies.

• Boris Johnson and his health secretary have both tested positive for the Covid19 virus, dramatically raising the stakes for world leaders.
• Trump insists Covid19 policy will be guided by data (which leaves one to wonder what has been guiding it to date).

Science and Medicine

• Chinese researchers estimate that there may be as many as 200 cases for every case identified in Wuhan, suggesting that asymptomatic infections dwarf the number with symptoms and immunity is far more widespread than we imagine.
• A multi-institutional team of mathematicians concluded that Covid-19 is exponentially more infectious than previously thought (a finding that would support the conclusions of the Chinese team).
• A team from Notre Dame drew very different conclusions in models of the epidemic curves, supporting existing estimates of the rate of contagion, but concluding that as many as 80% of cases were not detected.
• Research teams in Guangzhou andShenzhen studied the rates of transmission among contacts of infected patients and found that 10-15% of household members became infected. (numbers that would suggest it is not wildly contagious.
• A study of infected, mildly symptomatic patients in isolation found viral RNA in room air after 2 hours of sampling, but the sample could not infect cells in culture suggesting that the airborne particles were not viable.
• A study of patients found that the mortality risk increased for obesity, smoking, age>64, diabetes and heart disease by factors of 3.6, 2.1, 15, 3.6 and 2.0 respectively.
* * * * *

From my blog: The Risk of Zero Risk A family physician's shopping video goes viral, but the advice to use surgical procedures when unloading groceries seems excessive. Obsessive self-protection is unnecessary and may have negative consequences.Read More Covid19- Ground Zero

Notes from Seattle

* * * * *